Who were Finland’s best and worst players during the recent Euro 2012 qualifiers, and how did their three managers’ performances compare? Everyone will have their own opinions, but what do the statistics tell us?

I’ve compiled a spreadsheet with as much data from the ten qualifying matches as I can find, for all 31 players used by Finland. It also includes some basic data such as their ages and total caps, for reference. You can view it in its entirety on Google Docs. As with all my work (except images), it is available under the Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 3.0 license, which is explained in more detail on this website’s about page.

Most used players

Finland had only one ever-present player in their ten qualifying matches: the defender who started at left-back before moving to the centre and taking the captain’s armband, Niklas Moisander. He played every minute of every match, underlining his importance to the team and giving further justification for Mixu Paatelainen’s decision to make him captain. Roman Eremenko may have joined him on a full 900 minutes had he not been suspended for the away match against San Marino, having picked up consecutive yellow cards in the two matches before that.

Leeds United duo Mikael Forssell and Mika Väyrynen were the only other players to feature in every match, both of them coming on as a substitute on more than one occasion. Forssell scored seven goals in 721 minutes, a good record of nearly one goal for every 90 minutes, though that figure is distorted by four goals over two matches against San Marino and being substituted towards the end of four games. It was evident from the recent Hungary match that Finland play better and create more chances when Teemu Pukki or Timo Furuholm are on the field instead of Forssell, though they didn’t manage to score any goals between them in the qualifiers.

Kasper Hämäläinen is perhaps the surprise name in the above table. He had only won eight caps over four years before the qualifiers kicked off, but he ended up playing in all but one of the ten matches, scoring four goals along the way and finishing as Finland’s second-highest goalscorer. I don’t think it would be an exaggeration to say he went from being a fringe player to being a key part of Finland’s first team at only 25 years old. After Hämäläinen, the only other player to play more than 600 minutes was Petri Pasanen, who started all of the first six matches but then only one of the final four, as he picked up an injury and seemed to fall down the pecking order.

Players whose presence led to most goals

Goalscoring was a major problem for Finland – aside from the home wins over San Marino and Moldova, they didn’t score more than one goal in any match – so I thought it would be interesting to see which players were involved in the most goals, and which players were involved in the least. I couldn’t find any data for assists, and besides, that only credits the one player who touched the ball before the goalscorer, whereas in reality all the outfield players have a direct or indirect contribution to the goals. Therefore, I counted how many goals were scored by Finland when each individual player was on the pitch. Then, looking at only players who had featured in at least four matches, I divided it by how many minutes each player had played to see how much of a contribution they made to goals pro rata, and multiplied it by ninety to give friendlier numbers.

Veli Lampi tops the table, with Finland scoring nearly three goals for every ninety minutes he was on the pitch, but that is distorted by his presence in the 8-0 win over San Marino and absence from many of Finland’s low-scoring matches. Aleksei Eremenko Jr gives the first significant result, I think, as he played in all of Finland’s first six matches and was substituted either on or off in every one of them. Finland scored only eleven goals in those six matches, and he was on the pitch for nine of them. His absence from the final four matches through injury could go some way to explaining why Finland found it difficult to score. Daniel Sjölund rounds off the top three, which I think is also an interesting result, as he was off the pitch for seven of Finland’s eight goals against San Marino at home, and was substituted either on or off in his other five matches too.

From the bottom up, Teemu Pukki’s presence in the team yielded only 0.58 goals per 90 minutes, the lowest of all the players with at least four appearances. He was often chosen to play as a lone striker, and as he wasn’t getting on the scoresheet himself, Finland were struggling for goals. As I have said before, he seemed to try too hard when he made his first appearance of the qualifiers, after he had been hyped up by good performances for HJK and a move to Schalke 04 of Germany. He now has six caps but still no international goals, which isn’t a cause for concern yet but will become one if it carries on for too long.

Tim Sparv is next from bottom, and I think that is actually more worrying than Pukki’s result, as Sparv plays in the centre of midfield and therefore has a direct impact on how the whole team plays. After a couple of appearances at the beginning of the campaign, he made way for Perparim Hetemaj for the middle part before returning for the last couple of matches. I thought he played quite poorly against Sweden, disappearing whenever Finland got the ball and sought to attack, but improved somewhat against Hungary, getting forward more and being involved in a couple of his team’s better chances. Even though Finland scored against Sweden and not against Hungary, I hope he either plays as he did in the latter match or drops back into a more defensive role to allow Roman Eremenko to play further up. Joona Toivio is the other name in the bottom three, but I don’t think that means very much; his main task is to stop goals from being conceded at Finland’s end of the pitch, though he did score one goal against Sweden.

Players whose presence led to most points

Looking at how many points each player was responsible for is perhaps a fairer measurement than just goals alone, as points are most important for the team, and an 8-0 thrashing yields as many points as a 1-0 steal. A player who comes on for the last ten minutes can usually take less credit for the result as the player with 80 minutes who he replaced, so the above table’s “weighted points” column is calculated as the sum of the proportions of normal time minutes played by each player to the full ninety minutes in matches where Finland picked up at least one point. If that seems difficult to understand, perhaps an example would help: Alexander Ring played 72 minutes when Finland beat Moldova, so he gets (72/90)*3 = 2.40 weighted points for that match, and he played the full 90 minutes of Finland’s draw with Hungary, so gets (90/90)*1 = 1 weighted point for that match, making 3.40 weighted points in total.

I then divided that weighted points figure by the number of minutes each player was on the pitch for, and multiplied it by 90 again to show how many points each player was “responsible” for pro rata. Veli Lampi is top of the table again, as Finland won two and drew one of the four matches he featured in. Those two victories were against San Marino, but I don’t think it’s a completely meaningless result, as he played well when he came on against Hungary last week, in a match that ended in a draw. Jukka Raitala is next up, which reflects Finland’s upturn in fortunes after his introduction to the side at the half-way point of the campaign. Perparim Hetemaj rounds off the top three, which I think shows once again that Stuart Baxter should have put personal differences aside and picked him for the three qualifying matches he was in charge of.

Two of the bottom three players in this table are the same as the team goals table: Teemu Pukki and Tim Sparv. Sparv is bottom this time around with only 0.21 points won for every 90 minutes he played. To put that into perspective, Finland’s average points per 90 minutes was exactly 1.00, as they picked up 10 points from as many matches – if their average was 0.21, they would have finished the campaign with a measly two points. That’s a cause for concern, although Sparv was perhaps a little unfortunate in the matches he was picked for: four defeats and one draw, missing Finland’s two victories over San Marino and their one win over Moldova. Teemu Pukki moves up slightly as he took part in that Moldova match. Roni Porokara is sandwiched between the two with another poor return of only 0.28 points per 90 minutes, though that seems slightly harsh as he has put in some good performances in Finland’s recent friendlies, including goals in both of Finland’s matches (home and away) against Belgium.

Managers’ relative performances

Finland played under three managers, or head coaches, in the course of the Euro 2012 campaign. They were Stuart Baxter (three matches), Olli Huttunen (one match) and Mixu Paatelainen (six matches). Marrku Kanerva took charge of the team for three friendlies this spring, and continues to serve as Finland’s assistant manager, but did not oversee any competitive fixtures.

First up was Stuart Baxter, who took over the reigns in 2008 and served until 2010, when he parted ways by “mutual agreement”, whatever that really means, with the Finnish Football Association (SPL). He fulfilled the remainder of his contract, which ran until the end of Finland’s participation in Euro 2012, in a rather ambiguous advisory role. It was something akin to a scout, although he apparently refused to give any information away about Sweden, where he works, when Finland played them a short while ago. Anyway, he managed Finland for their matches against Moldova, Netherlands and Hungary at the start of the campaign, failing to pick up a single point in the process. My estimation (the “Expected points” column in the table above) is that Finland should have picked up six points from those three matches, by beating Moldova away and Hungary at home. Of course, that means he picked up zero percent of both the available and expected points.

Olli Huttunen was the caretaker manager when Finland played San Marino in their fourth qualifying match. They were expected to win, and they did, by eight goals to nil. Huttunen, who has recently taken over at Veikkausliiga side VPS, therefore picked up 100% of the available and expected points, although it’s not really a useful comparison.

Mixu Paatelainen took over for the last six matches of the campaign, remains in charge now, and has a contract to the end of Finland’s participation in Euro 2014. He oversaw Finland’s worst and best results of the campaign, the worst being the 5-0 defeat in Sweden, and the best being the 4-1 victory over Moldova in Helsinki. In total, the team picked up seven points under his guidance, and their performances also improved in a couple of their defeats, though the statistics do not take that into account. He picked up 38.89% of the available points, and 87.50% of the expected points, which I made to be eight: an away win over San Marino, a home win over Moldova, a home draw to Sweden and an away draw to Hungary.

I think that those figures suggest the team has improved under Paatelainen, which is certainly the impression I have got by watching them, but that they are still falling a little short of their potential. Of course, you may disagree with my expectations of their results, but I don’t think a total of seventeen points was unrealistic – they should have been good enough to beat Moldova and Hungary in the opening three matches, and they did play well enough to deserve a point in their home defeat to Sweden. They would still not have qualified for Euro 2012 with that tally, but they would have given a much better account of themselves. But I’m not trying to rewrite history – after all, if Finland had won two of their opening three matches, Baxter might still have his job, and who knows how the rest of the campaign would have played out.

Notes

I feel I should apologise for the length and density of this article, which must make it difficult to read all the way through. Hopefully the tables are clear enough to give you the gist of the points I have made. I am committed to this being the last article I write on Finland’s Euro 2012 qualifiers – I’ve certainly written plenty of them already, including a two-part recap of their matches and a player-by-player analysis of one of their final matches.

There are just a couple of things I want to clarify about the spreadsheet:

• All matches were considered to last ninety minutes, with injury time at the end of both halves not taken into consideration, because reliable data on the amount of injury time played in each match is not available. This means the “minutes” column is not entirely accurate, particularly for Berat Sadik, whose only appearance was as a 90th minute substitute in the away match against San Marino – he is listed as having played zero minutes.
• Perparim Hetemaj received two yellow cards in the home match against Netherlands, which led to a red card. In the spreadsheet, that is listed as a single red card and no yellow cards, as the red card effectively replaced the two yellows. Additionally, he picked up a yellow card in the home match against Moldova.

If there is anything puzzling you about any of the data or how it has been calculated, don’t hesitate to contact me, as I’ll be more than happy to explain it.

This is the second half of a two-part article looking at Finland’s travails in Euro 2012 qualifying group E. The first half covered Finland’s opening five matches, from their defeat in Moldova to their narrow victory in San Marino. Petri Pasanen remained captain of the team for one more match, after which the responsibility was handed by Mixu Paatelainen to Niklas Moisander (pictured below, left to right).

Humiliated by their greatest rivals

Nobody really expected Finland to beat Sweden away from home, considering the gulf in quality between the two sides, but most expected them to at least put a good fight against the team they would like to beat more than any other. They did not. Anssi Jaakkola, signed by Paatelainen when he managed Kilmarnock, was given a debut in goal for Finland, meaning they had used four goalkeepers in as many competitive matches. That decision proved to be costly, as the inexperienced Jaakkola made a number of mistakes and ended up conceding five goals, though he was not helped by some truly lousy defending, particularly from captain Petri Pasanen. Goals from Kim Källström and Emir Bajrami sandwiched a hat-trick from a half-fit Zlatan Ibrahimović as the home side ran riot over their Nordic neighbours. It was an embarrassing result and performance, but at least served to expose Finland’s weaknesses, which could then be worked on by the new coach and his team.

Sweden 5-0 Finland match report

The best result of the campaign

The final batch of qualifying matches started with a home game against Moldova, who had struggled after their earlier victory over Finland. With Netherlands, Sweden and Hungary breaking away at the top of the group, it became the battle for fourth place, with no reward except ranking points and bragging rights. Paatelainen rang the changes in the starting line-up, with Niklas Moisander becoming captain of the national side for the first time in his career and Lukas Hradecky being recalled to keep goal. Kasper Hämäläinen was the star of the show, scoring his fourth and fifth international goals as Finland cruised to a 2-0 half-time lead. Mikael Forssell scored his seventh goal in as many qualifying matches to extend Finland’s lead to three, and a Moldovan own goal made it four. A late consolation denied Hradecky a clean sheet on his return to the side, but otherwise the performance was everything expected of Finland… at last.

Finland 4-1 Moldova match report

Another close match against the world’s number one team

Netherlands were officially the best team in the world according to the FIFA rankings (they have since slipped to second place) when they came to play Finland in September. They were overwhelming favourites to win, then, but didn’t find it as easy as they might have expected. Finland put up a good defensive display – though it must be said that Netherlands had a number of chances that they didn’t convert – and came close to scoring themselves, but were robbed of all momentum when Perparim Hetemaj needlessly got himself sent off in the second half. Down to ten men, they could no longer attack in numbers, and they eventually conceded a goal in the last action of the game, which finished 0-2.

Finland 0-2 Netherlands match report

Sweden outplayed but not defeated

The only thing on anybody’s mind ahead of Sweden’s visit to the Olympic Stadium in Helsinki was the previous result, the 5-0 thrashing in Stockholm four months earlier. Paatelainen had not really had a chance to stamp his influence on the team back then, so this match was a good indicator of how far Finland had progressed – or regressed – under his guidance. Thankfully, it turned out to be the former, with Finland doing very well to control the match and fashion a number of chances for themselves. It was unfortunate that they conceded two goals, one at the start of each half, because scoring goals of their own proved problematic. Joona Toivio managed to get on the scoresheet for Finland, but they went on to lose 1-2 in a match they did not deserve to lose.

Finland 1-2 Sweden match report

Campaign comes to an end with tepid stalemate

If the previous match against Hungary was meant to be revenge, but didn’t work out, then perhaps this was revenge for the failed revenge. Or something like that. Either way, Finland’s defeat to Sweden in their previous match meant neither they nor Hungary had anything left to play for when they met in the final round of matches. That led to a lacklustre evening, in which Finland were terrible in the first half and Hungary terrible in the second. That way round is preferable from a Finnish point of view as it shows improvement, though they are getting into a habit of starting matches poorly. Neither team managed to score – Hungary came closest, while Finland created more chances but squandered them all. Paatelainen used the match as a way to thank some of the more senior players in the team for their efforts, recalling Otto Fredrikson and Mikael Forssell to the starting line-up, for example, after both had been dropped for previous matches.

Hungary 0-0 Finland match report

Here is how group E looks at the end of the ten matches:

Netherlands qualified for Euro 2012 as group winners, only missing out on a 100% qualification record because of their final round defeat against Sweden, who qualified without the need for a play-off as best group winners. Hungary missed out, but will probably feel satisfied with their performances, which included a victory over Sweden that gave them a chance of qualifying.

From the bottom up, San Marino finished with no points and no goals scored, a record that must feel all too familiar to them. Moldova finished fifth, their only impressive result coming against Finland right at the start. And speaking of Finland, they finished fourth with ten points from ten matches and a goal difference of zero. They will be disappointed with their results, but pleased at how their performances improved under Paatelainen, despite the large player turnover.

It should be remembered that, over the course of just ten matches, the core of the squad shifted from veterans like Sami Hyypiä, Markus Heikkinen, Jari Litmanen and Mikael Forssell to younger players like Niklas Moisander, Joona Toivio, Alexander Ring and Teemu Pukki. That was always going to lead to some painful results, but Finland are better off for it now. In hindsight, some of the former group of players played on for too long. I will never criticise anyone for making themselves available for their country, but Stuart Baxter must take most of the blame for being unable to see past them. It took a Finnish manager to be able to call on a wider group of players and begin to give them responsibility.

The next article on this website will take a look at some of the statistics of Finland’s qualifying matches, relating to both the players and the managers.

Finland’s unsuccessful attempt to qualify for Euro 2012 started badly and got worse, but had just enough positive moments to give Finnish supporters hope for the future. The transformation from a team led by Stuart Baxter and Sami Hyypiä (pictured below, left to right) to one led by Mixu Paatelainen and Niklas Moisander was painful but absolutely necessary for the growth of the side. Here’s the first half of a two-part article looking back at the highs and lows of the campaign.

The worst possible start

Finland’s group E opponents included the 2010 World Cup runners-up Netherlands and their nearest and greatest rivals Sweden. Beating those teams was always going to be difficult, so if Finland were to have any chance of qualification, they would have to take maximum points against the other three teams in the group, Hungary, Moldova and San Marino. Moldova were up first, and they hadn’t won a competitive match for three years, so Finland felt confident. Disastrous performances from their two senior stars in the first half undermined their efforts, with Sami Hyypiä being sent off and Jari Litmanen playing so poorly he had to be substituted at the interval. Moldova struck twice in the second half to inflict an embarrassing defeat on Finland, making their ambition of Euro 2012 qualification twice as difficult as it already was.

Moldova 2-0 Finland match report

Better performance, same result

Finland wouldn’t have counted on getting anything from their away match against Netherlands, but after their defeat to Moldova, they had to try for at least a point. That led to a very defensive strategy, which proved fruitless against a team with such a range of attacking talent, as the home side scored twice in the opening sixteen minutes and seemed to be heading for a rout. Mikael Forssell grabbed one goal back for Finland against the run of play, which seemed to shock their opponents and led to an even match from that point onwards. Finland had some great chances, but couldn’t put any of them away, and seemed frustratingly reluctant to go for an equaliser as the clock ticked towards the final whistle. The determination of the players was admirable, but their lack of quality and tactical nous was exposed again as they lost their second match in a row.

Netherlands 2-1 Finland match report

Revenge turns into a repeat

A home match against Hungary gave Finland the chance to pick up their first points of the campaign and get revenge for the 1997 match in which Hungary’s last-minute equaliser denied Finland a play-off spot for the 1998 World Cup. Captain Sami Hyypiä returned to the team and veteran goalkeeper Jussi Jääskeläinen came out of international retirement to play. Mikael Forssell was on the scoresheet again in an even game that looked to be heading for a 1-1 draw before Shefki Kuqi missed an easy chance for Finland, with Hungary taking the ball to the other end of the pitch and scoring a last-minute winner through Balázs Dzsudzsák. History had repeated itself and Finland had only themselves to blame as they remained pointless after three matches. This was to be Stuart Baxter’s final match in charge of the national team.

Finland 1-2 Hungary match report

Victory demanded and delivered

With Olli Huttunen taking temporary charge of the team, Finland faced San Marino in their final match of 2011. They simply had to win, and win convincingly, against one of the weakest teams in European football. Thankfully, they did, despite a shaky first half which only yielded one goal, Mika Väyrynen scoring after seeming to control the ball with his arm. Things changed when Jari Litmanen led the team onto the pitch for the start of the second half. He rolled back the years with a string of clever touches and passes, which lifted the crowd and his team-mates. Two more goals came almost immediately, and another pair followed before “The King” scored one himself, from the penalty spot. The seventh and eighth goals followed, with Mikael Forssell getting a hat-trick. Litmanen applauded the fans at full-time in a way that suggested his international career would be ending soon, and they applauded him back, of course.

Finland 8-0 San Marino match report

Three more points, but only just

The return match against San Marino in June 2011 marked the start of a new era for Finland. Former Kilmarnock boss Mixu Paatelainen had taken the helm, while Finland’s long-serving captain Sami Hyypiä had finally called it a day at the age of 37. Petri Pasanen took over the captain’s armband as the team put in one of their least convincing performances of the qualifying campaign. Forssell continued his goalscoring streak with a classy strike in the 41st minute, but otherwise Finland were completely ineffective in attack. They should probably have seen their goalkeeper – Ludas Hradecky, making his debut – sent off in the second half, after he misjudged a bouncing ball and then pulled back the San Marino forward Matteo Vitaioli, who looked to be clean through on goal. Fortunately the referee didn’t see it as a foul, so he survived, as did Finland but only by the skin of their teeth.

San Marino 0-1 Finland match report

At the half-way stage, with five of Finland’s ten matches played, group E looked like this:

Finland were fifth out of six teams, ahead of only San Marino. They were ranked below Moldova due to an inferior head-to-head record, having lost 0-2 to them in their opening match. Qualification remained mathematically possible, but totally unrealistic. Perhaps a few optimistic fans retained hope of finishing second in the group and taking a play-off place, but the majority knew that even that was out of reach, and that new targets would have to be set. Fourth place was the minimum expected, though better performances and the introduction of new players were the top priorities.

Worse was to come for Finland in their next qualifying match before things started to improve a little. A recap of the remaining five matches of the campaign is available in part two of this article.

Finland played out an uneventful 0-0 draw with Hungary in Budapest on Tuesday night, to close out both their Euro 2012 campaigns on a disappointing note. Finland might be the happier of the two teams, but they played very badly in the first half and have plenty of issues to address.

Report
Both teams’ hopes of reaching Euro 2012 had already been ended before the match kicked off. Finland had been out of the running for a long time, whil Hungary’s fate was decided when Sweden beat Finland 1-2 in Helsinki last Friday. That made the game effectively meaningless, and the way both teams applied themselves reflected that.

Finland had expressed their intention to dominate the game, as they had done for long periods against Sweden, which was evident right from the start as they kept possession from the kick-off and forced a corner in the first minute. From that, Roman Eremenko couldn’t keep his overhead shot down, and Tim Sparv failed to control the ball when it came to him afterwards.

Sparv and Alexander Ring also had chances for Finland in the first half, but as ever, resorted to long-range efforts too easily which either missed the target or picked out Hungarian goalkeeper Gábor Király easily.

Errors soon started creeping into Finland’s game, with their usually reliable captain Niklas Moisander playing a bizarre pass in his own area in the sixth minute to give the ball away under very little pressure. Tamás Priskin took the ball into the Finnish penalty area as a result, but was unable to get a shot away.

Eremenko had a really terrible game for Finland, barely playing a successful pass all night. He continued to be the “go-to” player for the Finnish defence, but then tried long balls far too often and gave the ball away most of the time, severely hampering his team’s chances. Ring was also guilty of giving the ball away on a number of occasions, but can be partly forgiven as he worked harder than anyone else to win the ball back. One of his misplaced passes led to Hungary’s best chance of the night, Priskin receiving the ball from the right and being allowed to control out from about six metres out, before sending a powerful shot just wide of the Finnish net.

Otto Fredrikson, chosen instead of Lukas Hradecky to play in goal for Finland, was tested for the first time after ten minutes, after Vladimir Koman fed Priskin, whose shot was saved well by the Spartak Nalchik ‘keeper. Fredrikson went on to have a good night, keeping a clean sheet and putting in one of the few positive performances by a Finnish player.

After an evenly balanced half hour, Hungary started to show why they had double Finland’s points tally going into the match, as they asserted themselves in front of their home crowd. In the absense of leading striker Gergely Rudolf, who I had predicted to be an important player for them, Imre Szabics looked like their most dangerous weapon in attack.

Earlier in the match, Szabics had broken into the Finnish penalty area and went to ground looking for a penalty, which was not given. His movement continued to pose difficulties for Finland; in the 33rd minute, he ran down the right touchline to pick up a through ball and played a good cross for György Sándor, who headed wide but should have done better.

Finland had a couple of chances just before half-time. Moisander was free on the edge of the Hungarian penalty area from a corner and should have controlled the ball, but instead chose to try a very ambitious header that went miles off target. It was a good metaphor for Finland’s first half; poor all over the pitch but making particularly poor decisions in the final third.

There were no changes at half-time but Mixu Paatelainen must have got through to his players, as they were definitely the better team in the second half. Their decision-making remained poor, however. In one incident, Mika Väyrynen took a shot from a very difficult angle rather than passing to Sparv, who was in a better position. In another, Kasper Hämäläinen took Finland’s umpteenth long shot of the night after Ring had won the ball off the Hungarian defence, catching them unawares.

It was only when Timo Furuholm replaced Mikael Forssell up front that things really started to improve. Forssell’s goalscoring record in these qualifiers is respectable, but his movement is virtually non-existant, which is one of the reasons why Finland’s plethora of attacking midfielders have to take so many long shots.

Immediately after coming on, Furuholm made a run that allowed Veli Lampi, also on as a substitute, to play a nice through ball for him to chase – he lose out to a Hungarian defender on that occasion, but he continued to create opportunities all night and came very close to scoring in a one-on-one with Király, who saved the shot brilliantly. In fact, the pyjama-bottomed stopper was Hungary’s best player, particularly in the second half, keeping his team in the match.

In the 73rd minute, Király made a diving save to prevent a better long-range shot by Sparv finding the net, and he came out of his goal with excellent timing five minutes later to smother a shot from Mika Väyrynen. On another day Finland would have scored, possibly more than once.

Hungary’s only chance of note in the second half came through Szabics once again, as he ran onto a ball in the Finnish penalty area, took it wide and then fired a shot right across the face of goal. Any Hungarian player following up would have been presented with an open goal, but as there wasn’t one, the ball trickled wide for a goal kick.

Both teams had corners in injury time at the end of the match, but by that point they seemed resigned to finishing 0-0, remarkably the first and only draw in the whole of group E.

Team line-ups
Hungary man-of-the-match: Gabor Kiraly. Finland: Alexander Ring.
HUNGARY (4-4-2)	FINLAND (4-5-1)
1. Gábor Király (GK)	12. Otto Fredrikson (GK)
2. József Varga	3. Niklas Moisander
3. Vilmos Vanczák	4. Joona Toivio
4. Roland Juhász	6. Mika Väyrynen
5. Zsolt Korcsmár	7. Roman Eremenko
6. Ákos Elek	9. Mikael Forssell
7. György Sándor	13. Kari Arkivuo
8. Imre Szabics	14. Tim Sparv
9. Tamás Priskin	19. Alexander Ring
10. Tamás Hajnal	21. Kasper Hämäläinen
11. Vladimir Koman	22. Jukka Raitala
Substitutions: 13. Zoltan Stieber (for Tamás Hajnal, 88) 16. Krisztián Vadócz (for György Sándor, 59) 18. Balázs Dzsudzsák (for Tamás Priskin, 59)	Substitutions: 5. Veli Lampi (for Kari Arkivuo, 55) 16. Teemu Pukki (for Kasper Hämäläinen, 85) 20. Timo Furuholm (for Mikael Forssell, 66)

Reaction
Finland head coach Paatelainen was satisfied with the match, saying, “We created three good scoring opportunities. If one of them had gone in, we would have won the match. We’re left speculating what would have happened if the ball had found its way into the net once again”. Personally, considering that everyone knew Finland would create chances but struggle to score them, I don’t see how he can be pleased at all. I also hope that he’s a lot more critical of his players behind the scenes, as a number of them had really awful games, particularly Eremenko, who is expected to be one of their best performers.

If the result had been important, Finland would feel pleased with a point, but as the performance was all that mattered last night, they should feel disappointed. About the only players who can hold their head up high are Fredrikson, Sparv, Ring and the three substitutes. The rest had better hope they can up their game when France come to the Olympic stadium next year for the first World Cup 2014 qualifier, or Finland will be humiliated.

Look out for a full recap and analysis of Finland’s unsuccessful Euro 2012 qualifying campaign later this week.

Match details
HUNGARY VS FINLAND
Date: Tuesday 11/10/2011
Local kick-off time: 20:00 (UTC+2)
Finnish kick-off time: 21:00 (UTC+3)
Type: UEFA Euro 2012 qualifying round match
Venue: Stadium Puskás Ferenc, Budapest
Capacity: 41 553
Odds: Hungary 1.70, Draw 3.50, Finland 4.85

Preview
Finland take on one of their Finno-Ugric language relatives, Hungary, in their final Euro 2012 qualifying match on Tuesday night. Hungary are currently third in group E, three points behind Sweden and therefore unable to qualify due to an inferior head-to-head record. Finland are in fourth place, nine points behind Hungary. In the FIFA world rankings, Hungary are 27th and Finland 72nd – Hungary are only two places behind Sweden and pushed them close in the race for second place in the group, so on paper they are a similar level of opponent.

The match is being broadcast in Finland by YLE; coverage begins on their TV2 channel at 20:30, half an hour before kick-off. The match will also be shown online via their Areena service for viewers in Finland.

Head-to-head record
Finland have played Hungary 13 times in their history, and have a very poor record against them, with nine defeats, two draws and only two wins. The great Hungarian team of the 1950s inflicted one of Finland’s heaviest defeats in 1951, winning 8-0 in Budapest. Finland’s last win against Hungary was back in 1978, in a European Championships qualifier in Helsinki which finished 2-1 to the home side. Their last meeting was the reverse of this fixture, which took place one year ago on Wednesday. Hungary scored a goal in injury time in that match to win 2-1, effectively ending Finland’s chances of qualifying for Euro 2012 after only three matches.

Key opponent
Note: after publication, I found out that Gergely Rudolf picked up an injury after being called up to the Hungary squad, so he won’t be playing tomorrow night. Here’s what I wrote about him, anyway:

He might not be one of Hungary’s most well-known players, nor one of their most capped, but Gergely Rudolf has been crucial to their recent good form. In March of this year, a Rudolf goal pulled Hungary level with Netherlands – they went on to lead 2-1 before losing 5-3. In August, he scored in a 4-0 friendly win over Iceland, and he got two goals in as many matches last month; first in the 90th minute against Sweden to give Hungary a chance of qualifying for Euro 2012, and then against Moldova four days later to secure victory for his side. In total, the 26-year-old striker has nine goals from 23 matches for the national team, which isn’t a bad record at all. He is currently on loan at Panathanaikos from his parent club, Genoa. He seems to be struggling to get regular club football, but his form for the national team makes him worth watching tomorrow night.

Analysis
Neither Hungary nor Finland have anything tangible to play for in this match. Both have missed out on Euro 2012 qualification, and neither can move up or down in the final group standings; Hungary will be third, Finland fourth. Aside from FIFA ranking points and the number of substitutions allowed, the match can be treated as a friendly, a chance for both teams to try out some different players or tactics.

Hungary have a fairly young team – in their 0-2 win over Moldova last month, they started with five players aged 23 or under, and an average age of 26.4. Finland are even younger, with an average age of just 24.5 in their starting line-up against Sweden on Friday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both those numbers come down when they play tomorrow night, which could make for an unpredictable match. Finland have players like Riku Riski and Mika Ojala who did not feature on Friday but deserve a bit of playing time, so I hope they get a chance.

Both teams have been playing well lately, with the key difference being that Hungary have been winning, while Finland have not. Finland will be desperate to show they can take the game to their opponents and score a couple of goals, as that has been their biggest weakness in recent matches. 4-5-1 has been Finland’s preferred formation lately, but I think they will at least consider starting with two strikers tomorrow night. Their desire to attack could play into the hands of Hungary, however, who are adept at fast counter-attacking play, so I expect Mixu Paatelainen will be telling his full-backs to focus on defending a little more than they did against Sweden.

Prediction
Finland have been improving with every match they play under Paatelainen (something that was made easier by a catastrophic start), and if they play against Hungary as well as they did against Sweden, they will have every chance of taking something away from the match. Factors going against them are Hungary’s good form and their home advantage. I think it’ll be close, but sadly I have to go for a 2-1 win for Hungary.